Economic recovery

According the reports Malaysian economy is recovering.. our import is increasing more than 250m in first quarter compare to the same period last year. I remember of writing something on this not so long ago somewhere else. I reproduce a bit here for you to consume:

    Andrian Cooper in a presentation on Global Economic Outlook:   how Secure is The Global Recovery, discussed that emerging markets such as China, Brazil, India leading the recovery but gathering strength in G3. Recovery maybe surprisingly strong in short-term but cautious about how secure it is…. Global imbalances in CA remain a threat.. contrasting shapes to recovery.. As conclusions to presentation he put foward that:

  • policy stimulus, turn in inventory cycle and rebound in world trade will drive strong recovery in near term
  • growth in developed economies is expected to remain below trend as government join banks and households in financial retrenchment
  • monetory policy will tighten only slowly especially in Europe
  • Asian economies will see more classic V recovery
  • Risk more balance but outlook still uncertainty

Kevin Tan writes in INSEAD KNOWLEDGE about Debunking myths about China’s imminent collapse and India’s Economic Outlook , commented:

    Economist …expects the growth of multiple centres of powers in the future, which would include emerging economies such as India, Brazil, Indonesia and Turkeys. Indian economy expected to grow by 8.5% this year bolster by relatively stronger domestic demand. India saving rate is between 35 to 37% of GDP and investment rate is 36 to 37%. Jing Ulrich Chairman of China Equities and Commodities feel a need to make correction over people worriedness about China’s fiscal position especially debt level which considered too high and rampant over capacity in various china economic sectors. China rollout USD 586 billion economic stimulus package in late 2008 help fuel the speculatory in property market in which 60% of China’s GDP. Last year China’s bank issued loan about USD1.4 trilion. While agreed with people concern Ulrich point out some area of potential. There are 3 key economic shift in china

  • i. moving toward more neutral monetary policy from ultra expansionary in 2009.
  • ii. monetary tightening is aimed to control inflation, prevent deterioration of bank quality asset and avoiding over-capacity
  • reduced supportive policy on real estate sector
  • iii. Shifting toward more private sector consumption from state-driven investment

Just thinking whats really cause the economic recovery. Is it due to stimulus package or … whats about domestic saving and consumption.. actually wonder if the world economic recovery is real ………… jeragang


About dmy56
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2 Responses to Economic recovery

  1. omar bin yahyer says:

    TQ for intresting news of recovery of malaysian economy but longway to go that the wal-mart yearly revenue is 2 trillion…just imagine..just one of USA company can beat MAlaysia…latest trend in malaysia most of malay people are more focus on politic rather than be more united and enhance their and knowledge…

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